When Will COVID-19 End

Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (as of April 25, 2020, daily updated)

This site provides continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases. SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world, with codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data. Given the rapidly changing situations, the predictive monitors are updated daily with the latest data. Theory, method, and caution are in this paper. In addition to the 28 countries on the page, predictions for more countreis can be downloaded here.

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

 

  • Singapore
    Singapore
    Turn around May 5; End 97% around June 4
    World
    World
    End 97% on May 29; End 100% on December 08
    United States
    United States
    End 97% around May 11
    India
    India
    End 97% around May 21
    Turkey
    Turkey
    End 97% around May 16
    United Arab Emirates
    United Arab Emirates
    End 97% around May 11
    Saudi Arabia
    Saudi Arabia
    Turn near April 27, End 97% around May 21
    Italy
    Italy
    End 97% around May 7
    United Kingdom
    United Kingdom
    End 97% around May 15
    Germany
    Germany
    End 97% around May 2
    France
    France
    End 97% around May 5
    Spain
    Spain
    End 97% around May 3
    Canada
    Canada
    End 97% around May 17
    Australia
    Australia
    End 100% on May 22
    Japan
    Japan
    End 97% around May 18
    Russia
    Russia
    Just Turned; End 97% around May 19
    Iran
    Iran
    End 97% around May 19
    Qatar
    Qatar
    Turn around May 27; End 97% around July 26
    Oman
    Oman
    End 97% around May 15
    Egypt
    Egypt
    End 97% around May 19
    Jordan
    Jordan
    End 99% around May 6
    Philipines
    Philipines
    End 97% around May 8
    Indonesia
    Indonesia
    End 97% around June 6
    Malaysia
    Malaysia
    End 97% around May 6
    Pakistan
    Pakistan
    End 97% around June 8
    Bahrain
    Bahrain
    Turn around May 16; End 97% around August 6
    Lebanon
    Lebanon
    End 99% around May 7
    Kuwait
    Kuwait
    End 97% around June 5
  • Contact Us
    If you have any questions or would like to add your country to the monitor, please let us know
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